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"There's no simple answer to the question of which strategy to choose," he said. Oscar Franco, director of the Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine at the University of Bern in Switzerland, added that the research provided a strategic option for countries to better control Covid-19.

"That might make this solution more sustainable, especially in resource-poor regions," he said. Rajiv Chowdhury, a global health epidemiologist at the University of Cambridge and the report's lead author, said the third scenario - rotating strict suppression measures with relaxation periods - may allow populations to "breathe" at intervals. Meanwhile, if looser mitigation strategies were continuously applied, it would take just over six months for new cases to fall close to zero. Researchers noted that individual countries would need to define for themselves how long the durations of the intervals would last to suit their domestic needs and facilities.Ī continuous, three-month strategy of strict suppression measures would be the fastest way to end the pandemic, with most countries able to reduce new cases to near zero in this scenario, scientists said. As more people would remain susceptible to catching the virus at the end of each cycle, however, the pandemic would be prolonged and last for more than 18 months in all countries.īut the Covid-19 death toll during the pandemic would be significantly reduced in this scenario, with just over 130,000 deaths expected across the 16 countries included the analysis. In the third, most stringent scenario, the R number would be reduced to 0.5 and keep ICU demand within national capacity across all countries, scientists concluded. Suppression measures were defined as those that led to a faster reduction in the number of new infections, achieved by applying strict lockdown measures on top of other mitigation measures. Researchers also modeled a third scenario, which involved a rolling cycle of stricter "suppression measures" for 50 days followed by a 30-day relaxation period. Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or Lower Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower

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